Will Moon's China visit bridge the gap in bilateral ties?

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South Korean President Moon Jae-in will start a four-day visit to China on Wednesday, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit marks another step towards mending bilateral ties frayed by a year-long discord over the deployment of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea.

China and South Korea have enjoyed a friendly relationship since establishing diplomatic ties in 1992, but the harmony was disrupted last year by Seoul's decision to install the THAAD anti-missile system, which Beijing strongly opposes.

The new South Korean administration under Moon's leadership has recently made a number of moves to seek rapprochement with Beijing. But it is still too early to say whether the two countries' differences over THAAD have been wiped completely clean.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor launched from the Pacific Spaceport Complex Alaska in Kodiak, Alaska, during Flight Experiment THAAD (FET)-01 on July 30, 2017. /AFP Photo

Signs of thawing ties

Ahead of Moon's China visit, several notable developments have already been seen in bilateral ties.

On October 31, Beijing and Seoul reached an agreement to bring cooperation back to normal as soon as possible, signaling the two sides' desire to move beyond the dispute over THAAD.

According to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement, South Korea has acknowledged China's stance and concerns on the THAAD deployment, and made it clear that the installation of THAAD will neither target any third country nor harm China's strategic security and interests.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry noted that Seoul was not considering any additional THAAD deployment, and the country would not participate in the US-led missile defense networks. It also stressed that trilateral security cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo would not extend to a military alliance.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Da Nang, Vietnam, November 11, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

The understanding was followed by Moon's separate meetings with President Xi and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in November, respectively in Vietnam's Da Nang and the Philippines' Manila. During the meetings, leaders from both sides expressed their willingness to get bilateral ties back onto the normal track at an early date.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (R) meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Manila, the Philippines, November 13, 2017. /Xinhua Photo‍

On November 22, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his South Korean counterpart Kang Kyung-wha in Beijing and urged Seoul to keep its word on THAAD and to continue to properly handle the issue.

"The meeting between the heads of the two countries will push South Korea to make good on its promises on the THAAD issue," said Yang Yuxi, a researcher from the China Institute of International Studies.

"If South Korea can further solidify and specify its stance (on the THAAD issue) during this visit, the development of China-South Korea ties will make remarkable progress."

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the China-South Korea diplomatic relationship. Though bilateral ties have experienced tough times, the trade volume between the two sides amounted to over 200 billion US dollars during the first nine months of this year, with 11.4 percent year-on-year growth, according to data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.

Beijing, Seoul look to sync approach on Pyongyang

The Korean Peninsula situation is expected to top the agenda at Xi and Moon's meeting, and experts have speculated that Moon could be leaning towards accepting China's suspension-for-suspension proposal.

Missile force of Korean People's Army attend a military parade in central Pyongyang, April 15, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

Shen Dingli, a political science professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that while the meetings will seek to smooth over the THAAD dispute, finding ways to bring stability to Northeast Asia will take priority.

Bong Young-shik, a political analyst with the Yonsei University’s Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul, said there’s a great sense of concern about a possible war triggered either by unilateral US military action or by accident.

"In that regard, China and South Korea are on the same page, to give a diplomatic solution a last chance,” Bong said.

The expert said Moon could express a degree of support for China's suspension-for-suspension proposal, which calls for the suspension of nuclear and missile activities by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the suspension of large-scale military exercises by the US and South Korea.

"I think there is growing preference inside the Moon Jae-in government to give it a try, to (support) China’s proposal to have the simultaneous suspensions,” added Bong.

Still, challenges linger

China and South Korea have generated noteworthy diplomatic and economic achievements, but the development of bilateral relations cannot be exaggerated and differences still linger between Beijing and Seoul on the THAAD dispute.

Despite the October 31 agreement on THAAD, the warming of bilateral ties does not mean the dispute will soon vanish. The future of the development of Beijing-Seoul ties depends on whether the latter will fulfill its promises. As the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, “The THAAD agreement announced by the foreign ministries of South Korea and China on October 31 is just the first step to resolve the problem… The final step will be the complete withdrawal of the THAAD system.”