Unionists and separatists vie for Catalonia’s future

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Pro-independence and unionist parties in Catalonia were neck-and-neck as official campaigning began on November 5 ahead of a unique election.

Campaigning got underway with some separatist candidates in prison, having been denied bail while being investigated on charges relating to the October independence referendum ruled illegal by Spain’s constitutional court.

Why are elections being held?

Pro-independence parties won a slim majority in the Catalan parliament in 2015, and gradually worked towards a controversial independence referendum which was held on October 1.

The poll went ahead despite Spain’s constitutional court ruling it illegal, and around 90 percent of the 2.26 million people who voted opted for independence on a turnout of 42 percent.

Ousted Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont appears on a picture during an event for his political platform "Junts per Catalunya" to mark the official start of the electoral campaign for the Catalan regional election in Barcelona, Spain on December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Almost four weeks of wrangling followed, before Catalan MPs voted to declare independence from Spain on October 27. Hours later, Spain’s senate voted to give Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy the power to take control of the region. Rajoy sacked the regional cabinet, suspended the region’s autonomy, and called snap elections for December 21.

What does the polling say?

The headline battle is between two blocs: one in favor of retaining the union with Spain, and the other campaigning to break away.

The latest polling suggests pro-independence parties are set to lose their majority in the 135-seat regional parliament, although the unionist bloc has also been narrowly behind in some recent polls.

In 2015, separatist parties won 47.8 percent of the vote, giving them a slim majority of 72 seats.

Data published on Monday by the Sociological Research Centre suggested pro-independence parties would take a combined 67 seats, with 59 for unionist parties, and nine for the unaligned Catalunya en Comú Podem.

Pro-union bloc

Latest poll: 59 seats

Ciudadanos (31 seats projected): The pro-market party led by Inés Arrimadas was founded to oppose Catalan independence. It has promised to restore stability and entice business back to the region. But likely kingmaker Catalunya en Comú Podem has vowed not to back the pro-business party.

Ines Arrimadas, leader of Ciudadanos, speaks during an event to mark the official start of the electoral campaign ahead of Catalan regional elections in Barcelona, Spain on December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (21): The party is not expected to be among the largest groupings, but leader Miquel Iceta is hoping to be Catalonia’s next president in the lengthy negotiations likely to follow the election.

Popular Party of Catalonia (7): The regional arm of Rajoy’s People’s Party is facing an uphill battle, with the latest poll suggesting it will win just seven seats.

Kingmaker

Latest poll: 9 seats

Catalunya en Comú Podem (9): The party led by Barcelona mayor Ada Colau, and represented by Xavier Domènech as lead candidate, is allied to Spanish anti-austerity party Podemos. It favors self-determination for Catalonia but has not called for independence. If the election is as close as anticipated, it is likely to be the kingmaker.

Pro-independence bloc

Latest poll: 67 seats

Esquerra Republicana (32): Former vice president Oriol Junqueras will contest the election from prison – he is facing possible charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds over his role in October’s declaration of independence. Esquerra Republicana looks set to battle Ciudadanos to be the largest single party in parliament, overtaking Junts per Catalunya.

Oriol Junqueras pictured in Barcelona, Spain on September 27, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Junts per Catalunya (25): Former president Carles Puigdemont began the campaign in Belgium, where he fled after his region's parliament declared independence. He is fighting extradition to Spain. An alliance with Esquerra Republicana has broken, so the parties will compete with one another.

Popular Unity Candidacy (9): The radical party formed a coalition led by Puigdemont in 2015, but the group holds some fringe positions that could make governing difficult.

What’s next?

The result of the election will be a significant pointer to Catalonia’s immediate future. If the separatist bloc regains control, the independence movement will be encouraged. A majority for the unionists will mean a government more closely aligned to Madrid and could move the region on from this year’s independence fight.

The identity of the next Catalan leader is impossible to predict, given that the close election is likely to be the result of intense negotiations and deal-making.

The campaigning will lead up to elections for the 135-seat Catalan parliament on December 21. The elections will take place on a proportional representation basis, across four districts. At least three percent of the vote is needed in a single district to win seats.

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