It's getting harder to find the true origin of the novel coronavirus that has plagued the world killing hundreds of thousands as genetic analysis indicates that the beginning of the pandemic dates back to early October 2019, over a month earlier than what was previously thought.
The new study, carried out by researchers from the University College London Genetics Institute and published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution on Tuesday, analyzed the genomes of 7,666 novel coronavirus samples from around the world using a method called "phylogenetic network analysis," and estimated that the likely period for the spread of the virus was between October 6 and December 11.
This method has been used to analyze the coronavirus genes many times before, with a researcher from Cambridge preceding the latest work.
But it's the first time for the method to be applied on such a large gene base.
"The virus is changing, but this in itself does not mean it is getting worse," genetics researcher Francois Balloux, who led the research, told CNN, adding that the study results add to an increasing body of evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus shares a common ancestor from late 2019, which suggests that this is when the virus jumped from an animal host into people.
"We are really, really, really confident that the host jump happened late last year," Balloux stated.
The study results also mean that the scenario that assumes SARS-CoV-2 may have been in human circulation for long before it was identified and thus has already infected a large number of people is ruled out.
In addition, researchers also found genetic evidence that supports theories the new coronavirus was infecting people in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere in the world weeks or even months before the first official COVID-19 cases were reported in January and February.
So far, the research team has created a new interactive, open-source online application so that researchers from all over the world can review the virus genomes and apply similar approaches to understand better and trace the evolution of the virus.
The research result goes online along with another study from France, which discovered a sample from a patient back in December 27, 2019 which tested positive for the novel coronavirus.
Similar claims are also getting louder in the U.S., where the mayor of Belleville, New Jersey said he "definitely" had COVID-19 symptoms back in last November. That's two months earlier than the first known patient in the country.
(Cover photo via VCG)