Editor's note: Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Reuters reported on October 19 that new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga reached an agreement with his Vietnamese counterpart which would in principle allow his country to export military wares to that Southeast Asian state.

Vietnam was the destination of Prime Minister Suga's first overseas trip since taking office last month, and it's importantly also this year's chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Hanoi has the right to enter into whatever bilateral agreements it chooses so long as they're not aimed at any third parties, but it must exercise caution to avoid getting trapped in the Quad+ scheme.

The Quad refers to the emerging political, economic, and even quite possibly military alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., while the "+" denotes the plans to expand this framework to include other countries such as New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, and Vietnam.

The problem with this platform is that there are credible suspicions of it serving as a means to "contain" China, which could possibly worsen regional security instead of strengthen it like it claims is its purpose. The prospect of Japan exporting military equipment to Vietnam raises concerns that Tokyo might have ulterior motives.

Once again, Vietnam has the right to clinch whatever deals it wants, but it must ensure that they don't jeopardize China's regional security interests. Unfortunately, its military agreement with Japan might eventually do just that if it's exploited by Tokyo and the other Quad members to encourage Hanoi to more aggressively assert its claims over China's maritime territory in the South China Sea.

Prime Minister Suga himself said that "Vietnam, which is serving as ASEAN chair this year, is key to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific", which could be interpreted as a euphemism for including it into the Quad+ format.

The military agreement that Reuters reported on is also concerning for other reasons than the ones that were just discussed. The trend of Japan's remilitarization recalls dark memories of its regional aggression last century which led to the Chinese suffering over 35 million casualties.

That's not to suggest that Japan is seriously considering another genocidal war of continental conquest, but just that its growing military influence can't help but negatively affect the sensitivities of all those who suffered from its war crimes in the past. Expanding its regional military footprint by opening up the possibility of arms sales to Vietnam might offend many people.

Japan's remilitarization, however, is tacitly encouraged by the U.S., which seems to consider the island country as a "counterweight" to China in East Asia. The same strategy is applied in regards to India in South Asia and Australia in the South Pacific, which is one of the reasons why many observers suspect that the Quad is a platform for the attempted "containment" of China.

The expansion of Japanese military influence from the country's home region of East Asia to Southeast Asia is alarming since it suggests that Tokyo is indeed trying to "contain" China at the Quad's behest, particularly by also luring Vietnam into the Quad+.

Vietnam has the sovereign right to implement policies in pursuit of its interests, though these same interests shouldn't come at China's expense. Hanoi will have to be careful in balancing between its growing military relations with distant Tokyo.

Dialogue, not military deals, is the way to solve bilateral disputes. Vietnam should also be careful to ensure that Japan or the other Quad countries don't try to meddle in its disagreements with China. Selling arms to Vietnam, whether Hanoi realizes it or not, might pave the path for such meddling by those actors in the future.

Looking forward, Vietnam's balancing act between its strategic relations with China and its newfound ones with the Quad is important for all parties. Maintaining equally close relations with both without harming the other's interests is key.

Should Hanoi be able to pull off this ambitious task, then it would set a very positive example for other countries to follow. They'd all realize the win-win benefits inherent in pursuing balanced strategies. If it fails, however, then the regional consequences might be disastrous. Other countries might then be pressured by the Quad into making fateful zero-sum choices which would only destabilize the world.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)