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Taliban's signal and the future of Afghanistan
By Yang Shanshan
02:06

Recently, the Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen's interview with This Week in Asia hit China's internet. The interview raised controversy among Chinese netizens when Suhail said Taliban sees China as a "friend" to Afghanistan and is hoping to talk to Beijing about investing in reconstruction work as soon as possible.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday urged the Taliban to make a clean break with all terrorist forces and return to the mainstream of Afghan politics during a joint conference with Tajik Foreign Minister following their talks in Dushanbe

As a major military force in Afghanistan, the Taliban should realize the responsibilities it bears for the nation, Wang said.

As for the signal sent out by Taliban, some experts criticized Taliban's terrorist history while some others called for possible negotiation in post-Afghan war.

He Wenping, professor and research program director at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned of caution on Taliban's words.

"Only good words are not enough at all. The action matters. The Taliban gave a lot of good words, either to Russia, to China, even to the United States. Taliban spoke those of good words so loudly now, because they understand very clearly: though they still own forces, it's not that easy to take over the current government," He said.

A U.S. military personnel stands guards after an official handover ceremony at the Resolute Support headquarters in the Green Zone in Kabul, July 12, 2021. /CFP

A U.S. military personnel stands guards after an official handover ceremony at the Resolute Support headquarters in the Green Zone in Kabul, July 12, 2021. /CFP

Experts estimated that the Taliban controls nearly half of the 400 districts of Afghanistan. One Taliban group in Russia claims that they controlled over 85 percent of the country.

Given people's worry that Afghanistan may fall into civil war after U.S. troops withdrawal, experts said Turkey is playing a more active role and preparing a deal with the U.S. to take over security operations at Kabul's civilian airport.

"Turkey now moved in. They are now back with Afghanistan forces. Recently they have made several big victories and Taliban is facing very serious security challenge. That's why Taliban make some clever strategic adjustments," said He, who views the signal from Taliban as "their wish to come into the negotiation table." 

As U.S. troops hastily withdraw from Afghanistan, the concerns on spill-over of Afghan civil conflicts haunts Afghanistan's neighbors.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi is on his visit to Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, discussing Afghan issues with foreign ministers from Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during the visit.

Professor He explained China's concerns. "It's so close to China. Especially during the past time, some terrorist groups connected with Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region have been flooding and even hiding in Afghanistan. Some extreme forces have used Afghanistan as a base to launch terrorist attack toward China," He said.

"Afghanistan also borders with Central Asian countries, and those central Asian countries are also worried very much about possible spill-over of Afghanistan civil conflicts into the central Asian countries. That's also one of the concerns coming from Moscow," He added.

"So I think that's why this SCO foreign minister's meeting will share their concern toward those issues, and reach some consensus on how to stop this kind of spill-over from Afghanistan to the Central Asian countries," said He.

An Afghan girl, whose family fled their home due to fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security personnel, eats bread as she stands in front of her makeshift tent at a camp on the outskirts of Mazar-e-Sharif, northern Afghanistan, July 8, 2021. /CFP

An Afghan girl, whose family fled their home due to fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security personnel, eats bread as she stands in front of her makeshift tent at a camp on the outskirts of Mazar-e-Sharif, northern Afghanistan, July 8, 2021. /CFP

A week ago, former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, at the World Peace Forum held in Beijing, sent out goodwill on being an SCO full member and showed interests in Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, with hope to bring investment and infrastructure projects into Afghanistan.

Experts believed Afghanistan's membership of SCO could help them get more investment opportunities and security cooperation.

SCO was created in 2001 with mission to promote peace and prosperity in Central Asia. Six of eight SCO members are Afghan neighbors, therefore, restoring peace and stability of Afghanistan lies in the interests of SCO.

But how to end the chaos of Afghanistan and prevent the coming civil war? The strategic location of Afghanistan, as the heart of Asia, decides its miserable destiny.

For centuries, Afghanistan has a nickname as the grave of empires, dragging the Greek, Mongols, British, Soviet Union and then Americans into its soil. Reviewing its wars-heavy history, Karzai emphasized that after U.S. troops withdrawal "Afghanistan should be on its own."

The former Afghan president told journalists at the world peace forum held in Beijing last week that he would not consider the option of UN peace-keeping mission into Afghanistan, but welcome regional cooperation from Afghan neighbors to solve Afghan issues.

For Karzai, the most important thing is that "Afghanistan is a country for Afghan people, and it's on Afghan people to provide security and prosperity to its people and the region."

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