Lai Ching-te, the trouble-making wild card for everyone

Editor's note: On May 20, Lai Ching-te assumed the role of the new leader of China’s Taiwan region. He styled himself as a peacemaker in his speech. But, what it has truly revealed is a dangerous man edging the region closer to confrontation. Take a look at this episode of Reality Check and find out the truth.

Lai Ching-te will always be a wild card. And he will always be a troublemaker for everyone.

He has been chasing after "Taiwan independence" for years. He has said it before. He made headlines in 2017 by stating that he is "without a doubt" a politician supporting "Taiwan independence" and that he will never change this stance "no matter what office" he holds. He describes himself as a "pragmatic worker" for it.

In 2020, he ran against his boss for their party's nomination because he thought she needed to be more aggressive against the Chinese mainland.

"It will not be good for Taiwan because we don't want war. It's just that simple," said Mr. Liu, a retired teacher in Taiwan.

"What I care about now… is for our people to have better lives. Politicians should pay attention to people's lives," Mr. Lin, another retiree in Taiwan, told us in an interview.

Well, that's not necessarily Lai's focus. We all know from where Lai's remarks come. "Formal independence" is synonymous with war across the Taiwan Strait.

So, you must surely see the word game here: No "formal independence" for Taiwan, but it's already a "sovereign country." Like the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. stated, Lai's words mean "peaceful separation" and "one China, one Taiwan." And he has been trying to do it by securing the support of an "ally" – the United States.

"He wants to prove to Taiwan people that he has American backing," said Lai Yueh-tchienn, a Taiwan-based political scholar. Lai Ching-te's aim is to show the U.S. "I'm a 'Taiwan independence' supporter you can fully control." The U.S. is fine with "Taiwan independence" advocates, but only if they can be effectively managed.

Lai's remarks about the Taiwan leader walking into the White House raised alarms in the United States. Officials from the State Department were eager to know whether they were going to see more "surprises" coming from Lai. And the Biden administration wants to avoid another "Chen Shui-bian type situation."

Lai is actually more dangerous.

Most people believe that the U.S. gave up Chen for two reasons: It wanted to avoid war with the Chinese mainland; and it needed the mainland's cooperation, especially in the fight against terrorism.

The first condition still exists today; the second is very debatable. The United States now sees China as a hardcore geopolitical adversary. Today, it has more incentives to let Lai undermine the mainland's position so that Taiwan stays an effective pawn. But still, it wants to keep Lai in check so he doesn't drag the U.S. into another conflict.

It's a very hard balance to keep. Lai Ching-te will always be a wild card. And he will always be a troublemaker for everyone.

The piece was originally published on January 16, 2024.

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