Middle East Insights 2024: Afghanistan, long road to reconstruction

2024 marks three years since U.S. troops completely withdrew from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, the nation's capital. After years of war, the devastated nation has finally achieved peace. Its people strive to improve their lives, but the deep-rooted issues left by the conflict cannot be resolved overnight. The path to reconstruction and development remains long and challenging.

Drug control promotes crop substitution and improves livelihoods

According to the latest estimates from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan's opium production in 2024 stands at 433 tonnes, maintaining a low level for the second consecutive year.

Following the Taliban's 2022 announcement of a comprehensive ban on opium cultivation and the production and sale of other drugs, the local authorities have adopted crop substitution strategies to mitigate the impact of this policy on farmers reliant on opium cultivation for their livelihoods. Although opium production in 2024 increased by 30 percent compared to 2023, it remains 93 percent lower than pre-ban levels in 2022, highlighting the sustainability of the crop substitution policy.

In November, Misbahuddin Mustaeen, a spokesperson for Afghanistan's interim government's Ministry of Agriculture, told CMG reporters that citrus orchards had been established across various provinces, and multiple training programs were being offered to farmers. Additionally, the ministry has introduced economically viable substitute crops, such as saffron, aloe vera, and pears.

According to incomplete statistics, since the ban on poppy cultivation, the agricultural sector has distributed approximately 100,000 tonnes of seeds and 200,000 tonnes of fertilizers to farmers nationwide.

Overall security has improved, yet isolated terrorist attacks persist

Afghanistan's interim government has brought peace to the country that its people had not experienced for decades.

Compared to the period of U.S. occupation, the current security situation has significantly improved, with a noticeable reduction in the number of terrorist attacks. Ali, a resident of Kabul, told CMG that in the past, they would not dare venture out at night, let alone leave the city, but the situation has now completely changed.

However, it is equally noteworthy that despite multiple claims by the interim government to have eradicated terrorist groups within the country, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) carried out several attacks in Afghanistan this year. In May, a foreign tourist group was attacked in Bamiyan, resulting in casualties among both Afghan citizens and foreign visitors. In September, an assault in Afghanistan's central Daikundi province claimed the lives of over ten civilians. In December, a suicide bomber detonated explosives inside the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, killing acting Minister Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani.

Local analysts believe that Afghanistan's overall security situation is improving but remains at a critical juncture in transitioning from chaos to order. During the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, over 20 terrorist organizations were active in the region, and it will take time to eliminate these extremist and terrorist forces. Furthermore, the abrupt withdrawal of U.S. troops left a military vacuum, posing additional challenges to the country's social governance.

Government's legitimacy still unrecognized, but diplomatic progress has been made

As of 2024, no country has officially recognized the interim government of the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, multiple diplomatic engagements have taken place with Afghan officials.

Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran have all appointed new ambassadors to Afghanistan. The Saudi Arabian Embassy in Kabul has reopened. The Saudi government announced on social media that, driven by its commitment to serving the Afghan people as brothers, it decided to resume the activities of its mission in Kabul as of December 22.

Afghanistan has also hosted several high-level delegations over the past year. In August, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov led a delegation to Afghanistan, marking his first visit to Kabul since the Taliban's return to power. During the visit, the two nations signed 35 investment and trade agreements worth approximately $2.5 billion.

According to a spokesperson for Afghanistan's Ministry of Economy, countries like Qatar, Iran, and Turkey are also actively investing in various sectors in Afghanistan, reflecting the confidence of neighboring countries in Afghanistan's future.

Some European countries have also started engaging with Afghanistan's interim government. Local media reports indicate that the Italian ambassador to Afghanistan (operating from Qatar) and the Norwegian chargé d'affaires (based in Pakistan) have been in contact with Afghan leaders. Meanwhile, the UK's chargé d'affaires to Afghanistan assured the Afghan deputy foreign minister during a meeting that consular services for Afghan citizens in London would be maintained.

Humanitarian crisis still to be addressed

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan remains a focal point of international concern, with severe shortages in funding for aid programs hampering progress. In September, the United Nations' humanitarian emergency plan required $3 billion in funding, but only 30 percent of the needed funds were secured. UN Special Representative for Afghanistan, Oyun-Erdene Otgontuya, stated that the funding shortfall had led to the disruption of more than 200 mobile and fixed healthcare services this year.

The UN's Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Martin Fletcher, noted that Afghanistan is currently experiencing the world's second-largest humanitarian crisis, with nearly half of the population urgently needing assistance. Over a third of the population lacks access to basic healthcare services, while one-third face food shortages, and malnutrition is becoming increasingly severe.

The situation for women also continues to worsen. In 2024, the Taliban passed the Morality Supervision Law, which mandates that women and girls must cover their bodies entirely in public, prohibits them from speaking in public, and forbids them from making eye contact with men who are not their relatives or spouses. Another decree banned women from pursuing medical education or taking related exams. Educational opportunities for women remain highly restricted.

Challenges under U.S. sanctions

In December, Afghanistan entered winter, and the thick haze of air pollution once again covered the skies above Kabul. Due to soaring fuel prices, many people burn trash for warmth during the cold months, filling the air with acrid smoke.

The World Food Program reported that 14.8 million Afghans require urgent assistance to survive the winter, facing multiple challenges, including hunger and cold.

During the 20 years of U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, local infrastructure development was slow, and people lacked basic living amenities, such as heating, water, and electricity. After the Taliban returned to power, the U.S. cut off aid to Afghanistan, froze billions of dollars of Afghan central bank assets abroad, and imposed stringent unilateral sanctions. These measures have further hindered Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts.

Kabul resident Mohammad shared with CMG that following the onset of winter, the prices of natural gas and firewood skyrocketed again and people cannot afford them.

"We have been enduring the pain of sanctions, and the worst part is, we don't know how much longer we will have to suffer," he said.

Located at the crossroads of West Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia, Afghanistan was once known as "the crossroads of Eastern and Western civilizations." Its stability and prosperity are crucial to the security of neighboring countries and the region.

Over three years after the occupying forces hastily withdrew, they have still failed to take on their historical responsibilities. After enduring decades of war, the local population has been waiting far too long for a peaceful, modernized country that meets the demands of the times.

Supervisor: Mu Li

Producer: Li Chao, Wang Xuejing

Reporter: Li Shuangxi