Germans set to go to the polls with AfD helping shape agenda

German voters go the polls on Sunday in a snap federal election, called in the wake of the collapse of Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition, and playing out against the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany and two external realities: the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the Ukraine crisis.

With immigration and the cost of living key issues among voters, and in the wake of a series of fatal attacks on the country's streets, two broadly centrist groupings, the center-left SPD and the conservative alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), are facing competition from several traditionally smaller parties.

The Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) have gained ground over recent years, while the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also running candidates for parliament in this year's Bundestag elections.

What's dominating the debate?

The emergence of the AfD as a serious force in German politics has helped shape the campaign, putting issues surrounding immigration and asylum firmly on the agenda in this election cycle.

The far-right party has called for the broad deportation of migrants and the right of family reunification to be removed for asylum seekers, pushing the CDU/CSU alliance to propose permanent border controls and faster asylum rules, and the SPD to promise to speed up the deportation of failed asylum seekers if it returned to office.

Revitalization of the German economy, the largest in Europe but spluttering, has also been a central part of the election campaign. 

The CDU/CSU alliance has promised to cut taxes and welfare spending in a bid to deliver growth, while the SPD wants to reform the debt brake – which limits government borrowing – to enable greater public spending, a position opposed by the AfD, and establish a 100-billion-euro investment fund.

The Ukraine crisis is another major issue, with the more mainstream parties favoring stronger backing for Kyiv, and the AfD and BSW favoring withholding support and rebuilding ties with Russia.

The rise of the AfD is a point of intrigue inside and outside the country. The party has expanded its east German base to become a serious player in national politics in just 12 years, and has won interest from high profile figures in the Trump orbit, including Elon Musk and JD Vance.

The "firewall against the far-right," a commitment among mainstream parties not to deal with the AfD and similar parties, will likely prevent it from entering power in this cycle, though CDU leader Friedrich Merz did cooperate with AfD lawmakers recently to pass a bill related to immigration.

Who are the main candidates?

Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the CDU, is an enduring figure in German politics, having first led the party in 2000. He lost the leadership to Angela Merkel in 2002, but the business-friendly social conservative is now in poll position to become the next chancellor.

Scholz, the current chancellor, is the SPD's candidate again despite a chastening three years in office, during which the 66-year-old had to deal with the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and a struggling economy, as well as deadly attacks on Germany's streets by people with a migrant background. The coalition between the SPD, Greens and FDP that he headed fell apart amid disagreements over loosening debt rules.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel is the first person from her party, which has steadily increased support since its establishment in 2013, to run for chancellor. She is comparatively young at 46 and digitally savvy, frequently sparking controversy with strident views on everything from wind turbines to migration.

The final two candidates for chancellor are Robert Halbeck, who served as vice chancellor under Scholz and is again the choice of the relatively mainstream Greens, and Sahra Wagenknecht, a controversial populist whose eponymous BSW party has built some support in eastern Germany.

What does the polling suggest?

Polling trends ahead of the election have been fairly consistent for several months, and point clearly to another coalition.

The CDU/CSU alliance fronted by Merz is the clear leader at around 30 percent, with an average advantage of almost nine points over the AfD, according to a Reuters polling aggregate.

Support for Scholz's SPD is at almost half of that as the conservative alliance, at just over 15 percent, while the Greens are lying narrowly behind the chancellor's party.

The FDP, Linke and BSW are all polling at around 5 percent, which is the threshold a party needs to exceed to enter parliament.

Around 59.2 million people are eligible to vote for the new 630-member Bundestag, which will elect the next chancellor.