Experts: China ready for countermeasures after Japanese PM's provocation

China is ready to take countermeasures against Japan at any time if necessary, experts have said, as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent provocative remarks on the Taiwan question continue to escalate tensions.

At a Diet meeting last week, Takaichi said that the Chinese mainland's "use of force on Taiwan" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. She refused to retract her remark that implies the possibility of armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait – despite China's serious demarches and protests.

According to a statement of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released in early hours of Friday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, "following instructions from superiors," summoned Kenji Kanasugi, the Japanese ambassador to China, calling Takaichi's remarks extremely wrong and dangerous.

Xiang Haoyu, a researcher on Japanese Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, noted the phrase "following instructions from superiors," believed to have appeared for the first time in a context of China-Japan relations, refers to handling matters assigned by a higher authority.

This implies that Sun is engaging in the negotiation with the Japanese ambassador not just in his capacity as a vice minister, but also is directly stating Beijing's position on behalf of a higher level of leadership.

In addition to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office and the Ministry of National Defense have also successively spoken out regarding Takaichi's erroneous remarks over the past few days.

Ding Nuozhou, an expert at the Institute of Japanese Studies at Nankai University, said this indicates that the incident has escalated beyond a regular diplomatic dispute. He added that the statements from the multiple ministries alone signal a strong official stance.

This further illustrates that the Chinese side has characterized the Japanese prime minister's remarks as a major matter of principle that touches upon national dignity and core interests, said Ding. "The Japanese side must reflect and correct its mistakes, leaving absolutely no room for ambiguity," he added.

In China's responses, there is one key phrase: "all the consequences shall be borne by Japan."

Ding explained, "all the consequences" refer to any action that complies with international law and international norms.

The first step may involve countermeasures, he said. China has accumulated substantial experience countering Taiwan-related actions, and roughly 80 percent of the Foreign Ministry's existing counter-sanction cases – including those targeting Japanese politicians – are linked to the Taiwan question.

"China can adopt similar measures at any time, provided they are necessary," he said.

Then, China may suspend intergovernmental exchanges with Japan across economic, diplomatic and military sectors, Ding said. This is a tactic China has used in the past when employing the warning phrase of "all the consequences" be borne by the other side.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense have both warned the Japanese side of a "crushing defeat" should it dare to take a risk on the Taiwan question – a forceful phrase believed to be the first time it has been used in a China-Japan diplomatic context.

Xiang said that a "crushing defeat" is more than mere diplomatic rhetoric, and it also carries explicit military connotations.

He noted that both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense have employed this precise wording on matters of principle.

An act that undermines the post-war order

China's responses over the past week have consistently referenced a significant background: this year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.

Lyu Yaodong, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized the significance of this context.

As a defeated nation in World War II, Japan is explicitly constrained by the Charter of the United Nations and Article 9 of its domestic "constitution of peace," requiring it to renounce the use of force for settling international disputes and to refrain from maintaining war capabilities, Lyu said.

"This constitutes the core arrangement of the post-war order in East Asia, which Japan has no right to unilaterally undermine," he said.

China's condemnation of Takaichi's remarks extends beyond bilateral relations, explicitly characterizing them as severely violating international law and the basic norms of international relations, and seriously undermining the post-war international order, he added.

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