'Riding a tiger': Analysts say Trump seeks Iran war exit without plan

In his first prime time address to the nation on the Iran war, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared a "swift, decisive and overwhelming" victory in the war against Iran.

Analysts say Trump failed to deliver on key assurances, offering no concrete timeline for ending the conflict and failing to ease US public anxiety or global market fears over energy supplies, as evidenced by an immediate surge in international crude oil prices.

A lack of details on an exit strategy

Trump claimed America's core strategic objectives are "nearing completion", yet vowed to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks, threatening to "bring them back to the stone ages" while asserting that Washington has "all the cards" and Tehran has "none" for "ongoing" discussions.

Notably, in the 19-minute address, he offered no clear timeline for ending the conflict, provided few details on subsequent measures, omitted any mention of the previously proposed 15-point ceasefire framework, and gave no indication whether the US would coordinate an exit strategy with Israel, with which it launched the military attack on Iran back on February 28.

There is a clear contradiction in the messages conveyed by Trump, said Michael Singh, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.

On the one hand, Trump implies that the US only has two to three weeks left to achieve its military objectives; on the other hand, he seems to suggest that the US will not end the war without a diplomatic agreement, Singh told Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao.

Trump did not specify which issues he hopes to negotiate. However, he has indicated that most of America's concerns have been addressed through military means, Singh said, concluding that the US will "likely disengage from this war very soon."

Approximately half an hour after Trump's address, the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that it had detected Iranian missile launches targeting Israel and that its air defense systems were in the process of intercepting them.

The development of the battlefield situation in the Middle East war may not end at Trump's pace, though he has expressed the US desire to disengage from the war, Jin Liangxiang, director of the Middle East Studies Center at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told local media.

Su Xiaohui of the China Institute of International Studies went further, arguing that the US is now in a dilemma with no way out. "It's like riding a tiger and finding it hard to get off."

The US has repeatedly emphasized that it can end the conflict, proposing a ceasefire first, followed by negotiations with Iran on US terms, Su told China Media Group (CMG). "But clearly, the US' wishful thinking has failed, since Iran has refused to surrender."

Her analysis captured the crux of the US predicament. The White House finds itself now unable to withdraw, yet equally unable to sustain a protracted war of attrition. Meanwhile, Iran's readiness for a long-term standoff has left the US scrambling for an exit strategy, with its recent military buildup appearing more like an attempt to escalate its way out, Su said.

Yet this approach carries its own risks: military mobilization takes time, and the buildup period is rife with variables that could further disrupt US domestic stability and global markets, she said.

Su argued that it is a clear sign of a strategic miscalculation by the US, which has now become trapped in a quagmire of its own making.

An attempt to gauge domestic sentiment

Trump's Wednesday night address was his first to the nation regarding the war with Iran. It followed more than a month of military action and arrived as his approval ratings hit a record low.

Polling indicates his approval rating has dipped below the 40% threshold for the first time in his second term, with a recent Pew Research Center study showing that about six-in-ten Americans (61%) disapprove of his administration's handling of the Iran conflict.

The most tangible backlash stems from the economic toll of the war, directly linked to surging energy prices, an issue that has hit American consumers hard. US benchmark crude prices have soared by more than 50% since February 28, and data from the American Automobile Association released on March 31 showed that the average price of regular gasoline has climbed to $4.02 per gallon, the highest in nearly four years.

Energy analysts have explained the root cause: Oil prices are determined by the global commodity market, dispelling the idea that America can shield itself from Middle Eastern turmoil despite its status as the top oil producer.

Trump's speech failed to reassure global oil markets that the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane that carries about 20% of the world's oil supply, would ease in the short term.

The immediate impact was evident. Shortly after Trump's address, global oil benchmarks surged in early Thursday trading, with Brent crude jumping 7.4% to top $108 a barrel. The US standard, West Texas Intermediate, saw a similar 7% spike, climbing to $107.

US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized Trump's speech for ignoring the daily struggles and concerns of ordinary Americans. "Has there ever been a more rambling, disjointed, and pathetic presidential war speech?"

"Donald Trump's actions in Iran will be considered one of the greatest policy blunders in the history of our country, failing to articulate objectives, alienating allies, and ignoring the kitchen table problems Americans are facing," Schumer wrote on social media.

Su, the expert at China Institute of International Studies, noted that Trump's address was itself an attempt to gauge the US domestic sentiment, as the administration's next steps, including whether to escalate military action, will depend on public response to unmet expectations, particularly the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Wang Kunpeng, an observer for CMG, noted that both the international community and the US domestic public harbor significant doubts and opposition to the Trump administration's war on Iran.

Facing mounting political and economic pressure at home, the administration intends to disengage from the conflict quickly, but not before laying the groundwork for a so-called victory, Wang said.

Noting that Trump claimed "swift, decisive and overwhelming" victories and Iran's military capabilities were "dramatically curtailed" in the speech, he said this is part of his effort to shape public perception and wage a public relations campaign ahead of a potential exit.