Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday, as extreme heat swept across parts of Europe and India.

A new report released by the WMO and Britain's Met Office said there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. Last year's assessment placed that probability at 80%.

According to the report, annual global mean near-surface temperatures during the 2026-2030 period are expected to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average.

The report also said there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The likelihood that average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5 degrees stands at 75%, up from 70% in last year's report.

The WMO said 2024 remains the warmest year ever recorded, with the global mean temperature estimated to be 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline.

Scientists stressed that the 1.5 degrees threshold under the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming measured over decades rather than individual years. Temporary exceedances are expected to occur more frequently as global temperatures continue to rise.

The report also said the predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Nino conditions over the next five years, particularly in 2027 and 2028.

Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said an El Nino event is forecast to develop by the end of 2026, increasing the chances that 2027 could become another record-breaking year.

The warning came as several countries experienced unusually early and intense heatwaves.

Spain's national weather agency issued heat or severe storm alerts for 10 regions on Tuesday, with temperatures in some areas forecast to approach or exceed 40 degrees. Meteorologists said a "heat dome" effect had brought weather conditions more typical of midsummer than late May.

Italy issued red heat alerts for cities including Rome, Florence, Turin and Bologna, while unusually high temperatures were also reported in France, Ireland and Portugal.

In India, temperatures in parts of Uttar Pradesh climbed to 47 degrees last week. Local media reported that at least 37 people died from heat-related causes in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Water and electricity shortages were also reported in several regions, including the capital New Delhi.

Another key finding of the report is that Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters are expected to remain far above average, continuing a warming trend that is outpacing the global mean.

(With input from Xinhua)