China's National Climate Center: El Nino developing rapidly, likely to become strongest on record

El Nino is developing rapidly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and is expected to peak around November or December, with a high probability of becoming the strongest El Nino event on record, China's National Climate Center said.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise. The event is characterized by its rapid development, strong intensity and significant climate impacts.

Summer climate anomalies in China reflect typical impacts of developing El Nino

The climate anomalies observed in China this summer were largely influenced by the rapid development of El Nino, according to the National Climate Center.

The western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough shifted farther north and became stronger. Meanwhile, cold vortices from the north frequently moved into the region, resulting in two major rain belts in northern and southern China.

As the summer monsoon strengthened, tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea became more frequent and intense, bringing above-normal rainfall to southern China and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Northern China also experienced frequent heavy rainfall. The interaction between the northward-shifted subtropical high and cold vortices favored persistent precipitation, while the western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclones transported moisture over long distances, resulting in repeated strong winds and heavy rainfall in northern China.

Typically, during the autumn of an El Nino development year, precipitation tends to be above normal in the central and southern parts of eastern China, the central and southern parts of central China, the northern parts of southern China, and the eastern parts of southwest China. However,  the northern parts of central China and the eastern parts of northwest China are expected to have below-normal precipitation.

Temperatures are generally expected to be above normal across most of the country, with significantly higher temperatures likely in most parts of eastern China, central China, the eastern parts of southwest China and Xinjiang.

As El Nino is still developing rapidly and its impacts tend to lag behind its development, the National Climate Center will strengthen monitoring and forecasting efforts and closely track its future evolution and potential impacts on China's climate.

What is El Nino?

Under normal conditions, the equatorial western Pacific has a large area of warm water, while the eastern Pacific is relatively cool.  However, these conditions can change.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by sustained abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by abnormal atmospheric circulation patterns.

La Nina is commonly described as the opposite phase of El Nino and refers to the widespread and sustained abnormally low sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

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