Will cabinet reshuffle save Abe's premiership?

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shook up his cabinet on Thursday in a move to reverse his plummeting popularity. But with former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida not included in the new cabinet and assuming a senior party role, it is widely viewed that Abe's potential rival in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is now a step closer to replacing the scandal-hit prime minister.

"No matter how excellent leader Prime Minister Abe may be, the Abe era will come to an end at some point," Kishida said in a speech at an event held by his faction within the LDP.

Abe responded by asking him to be patient and support him for a little longer.

After a crucial meeting between the two on July 20, a deal appeared to had been reached: Kishida's faction, Kochikai, would continue to support Abe for the time being.

In return, Abe agreed to leave Kishida out of his new cabinet and appoint him to a top party post, allowing the former foreign minister to distance himself from the unpopular administration and prepare for a possible party leadership and premiership challenge next year.

"Usually, people who want to aim for the leadership don't take cabinet jobs," Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, told Bloomberg, "Mr. Kishida is staying out so that he can launch a challenge."

Now as chairman of LDP's Policy Research Council, how much more patience will Kishida have?

Fumio Kishida arrives at Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, August 3, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Abe's downward spiral

In early 2017, when most polls showed the LDP cabinet enjoy support rates of between 50 and 60 percent, it was expected that Abe would win a historic third consecutive term in December 2018 and become the longest-serving Japanese prime minister after World War II.

However, the cabinet's popularity has been in a downward spiral in recent months, particularly since the LDP suffered a defeat in the July 2 Tokyo Metropolitan elections.

Ten major polls by Japanese media organizations last month showed approval rates of Abe's cabinet have dipped below 40 percent, with Mainichi Shimbun putting it at 26 percent – the lowest level since Abe returned to power in late 2012.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bows at the start of a news conference after reshuffling his cabinet, at his official residence in Tokyo, Japan, August 3, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Two school-related scandals and the downfall of Defense Minister Tomomi Inada have been highlights of Abe's numerous troubles this year.

Since March, a land sale scandal involving his wife Akie Abe has been spiraling. There are allegations that ultra-nationalistic school operator Moritomo Gakuen got a massive price cut when it purchased a plot from the government to build a new elementary school, of which Akie was to serve as honorary principal.

More recently, the Japanese prime minister faced accusations of cronyism after allegations surfaced that he pulled strings to help Kake Gakuen in central Japan win approval to set up the country's first veterinary school in 52 years. Kake Gakuen is chaired by Abe's close friend Kotaro Kake.

Last week, Inada, a protege of Abe, resigned as defense minister over a cover-up involving reports on Japan's peacekeeping activities in South Sudan.

After the successive blows, Abe felt it necessary to restore his lost trust among the public with a cabinet shake-up.

"Various problems were pointed out in the last session of the parliament, which sparked a great deal of suspicion from the people," he told reporters on Thursday.

"I want to reflect deeply on that and apologize to the people."

But Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo, said the reshuffle might not be enough to bolster voter support for Abe.

"He'll be trying to regain his authority by turning a new page and getting rid of the problematic ministers," Nakano told NHK.

"But he is also the source of the problem in many ways, and he can't get rid of himself."

Japan's Emperor Akihito (L) and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L2) attend an attestation ceremony of the new cabinet at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, Japan, August 3, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Growing Kishida clout

Should Nakano be right, someone within the LDP is likely to challenge and "get rid of" Abe.

"If Abe's support rate plunges further, LDP lawmakers will certainly look for new leadership," Professor Takesato Watanabe of Doshisha University told CGTN.

On the other hand, as the main opposition Democratic Party fails to capitalize on LDP's popularity drop, there is no clear alternative to the ruling party. So the person replacing Abe as the LDP leader is also expected to succeed him as Japan's prime minister.

Kishida, who served as foreign minister from 2012 until this week, is viewed as the frontrunner to replace Abe in both roles, as the next LDP leadership election could take place in September 2018.

CGTN Graphic

Though Kishida stayed out of the new cabinet, four members of his faction have been given portfolios, including Yoshimasa Hayashi, Itsunori Onodera, Yoko Kamikawa, and Masaji Matsuyama. Previously, there were just two Kochikai members in the cabinet.

With its rising clout, Kishida's faction could hinder the operation of the Abe administration if the ex-foreign minister moves to succeed the embattled prime minister, a report by Mainichi Shimbun suggested.

Abe has also acknowledged that Kishida would "play a central role" in the country's future.

"Mr. Kishida achieved great things as foreign minister," Abe told reporters after appointing Kishida LDP's Policy Research chairman on Thursday.

"He is the one who will play a central role in the future of Japan, so now I have expectations of him taking responsibility for the whole range of party policy."

Fumio Kishida is surrounded by reporters upon his arrival at at Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, July 29, 2017. /Reuters Photo

When will Kishida withdraw his support for Abe and bid for the top job? His predecessor as faction head and former LDP Secretary General Makoto Koga advised him to have more patience.

"When a dog's drowning in the river, don't hit it with a stick," he told Bloomberg.

"I won't allow it. Now is the time for patience and redoubled efforts. It's the time to offer support."

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