Sochi talks: Wide gaps remain in post-ISIL Syria

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As more than 1,000 participants gather in Russia's Black Sea resort Sochi for peace talks over Syria this week, gaps between the stances of major players remain wide.

With the defeat of terrorist group ISIL in most parts of the country, the remaining parties – the Syrian government, various opposition groups and the Kurds, along with their international supporters, are vying for a bigger piece of the pie in a new phase of Syria's prolonged conflict.

Beginning in March 2011, the Syrian civil war has already killed over 340,000 people and caused one of the worst refugee crises since World War II.

Three major camps, conflicting agendas

There are currently three main players in Syria: the Syrian government-Russia-Iran bloc, the Kurdish-led and United States-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the alliance between Turkey and rebel groups in northwest Syria such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), according to Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs, formerly known as the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center.

In a recent commentary published on Foreign Policy, Spyer said the Syrian war is entering a new phase with the three broad camps competing against each other with conflicting agendas.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who regained much of his lost land after Russian war planes joined the conflict in his favor in 2015, hopes to stay in power until at least 2021 when his third term comes to an end.

October 20, 2015: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia. /VCG Photo

Assad's role in the conflict and the future of the country is a hugely divisive issue among the players. Some regard him as a hero, others believe he should be held responsible for the suffering of the Syrian people and the alleged use of chemical weapons.

"Assad is a hero because he stood his ground and stood with his people," the Syrian president's political and media adviser Bouthaina Shaaban told CGTN last November, highlighting Assad's efforts to defeat the "terrorists."

Last week, the Syrian government rejected proposals by the US, Jordan, Britain, France and Saudi Arabia calling for a new constitution that would dilute presidential powers in favor of a stronger prime minister.

UN envoy Staffan de Mistura during talks on Syria in Vienna, Austria, January 25, 2018. /VCG Photo

The Turkey-backed rebels insist that Assad's removal from office is a precondition for any political deal. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan even labeled Assad as a "terrorist" in December.

"Assad is definitely a terrorist who has carried out state terrorism," he said in a news conference during a visit to Tunisia.

The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), sponsored by the US in the fight against ISIL, has long sought to establish a self-governing region in northern Syria. However, the YPG is viewed as a group of terrorists by Ankara.

Turkey's ongoing attacks on YPG fighters in the Kurdish enclave of Afrin have further complicated the situation. US President Donald Trump, who plans to build a 30,000 strong border force in Syria that would include YPG members, warned its NATO ally against bringing Turkish and American forces into conflict.

Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters fire a mortar in Barsaya mountain, northeast of Afrin, Syria, January 28, 2018. /VCG Photo

Two peace processes, few concrete results

There are two multilateral peace processes aimed at ending the seven-year bloodshed in Syria: the United Nations-brokered peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, and the Russian-brokered peace talks in Kazakhstan's capital Astana.

After nine rounds of Geneva talks and seven rounds of Astana talks, few tangible results have been achieved and violence continues to take place in many parts of the country. As a continuation of the Geneva process, the UN-sponsored talks in Vienna last week were again fruitless.

While many Syrian rebels are suspicious of the Russian-initiated process, Moscow claims that the talks in Astana and Sochi would contribute to the UN-led efforts.

The decision to hold the Sochi talks was announced in November 2017 when Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in the city. Formally known as the Syrian National Dialogue Congress, slated for Tuesday, the meeting will focus on setting up a commission that will work out Syria's new constitution.

Although the UN has agreed to attend the gathering as an observer, the embattled Kurds and a major opposition group, the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC), refuse to take part.

"I don't expect any substantial or tangible concrete result from the Sochi conference at this time," Li Guofu, a senior research fellow from the China Institute of International Studies, said during an interview with CGTN on Monday.

But he added that holding the conference itself by inviting over 1,000 delegates from both inside and outside Syria is a "major breakthrough" within the process of seeking a solution to the Syrian crisis.

Syrian ambassador hails China's support

In an interview with CGTN ahead of the Sochi talks, Syrian Ambassador to China Imad Moustapha thanked China for standing with his country at a difficult time.

"The Syrian people today feel deep, profound gratitude toward China," he said. "We would never ever forget that China stood with us in the most difficult juncture in our history."

Syrian men unload humanitarian aid parcels from a Syrian Red Crescent truck in the besieged rebel-held Eastern Ghouta region outside Damascus, October 30, 2017. The Chinese embassy in Syria announced in November that 1,000 tons of rice donated by China had been delivered to Syria's northwestern city of Latakia. /Xinhua Photo

"A friend in need is a friend indeed," he continued, noting that China, a permanent member in the UN Security Council, vetoed several Western-drafted resolutions against Damascus.

"China understood that what was going on in Syria was really a major world power conflict – geopolitical conflict," said Moustapha. "It was not something as portrayed in the West."

Therefore, China decided to have its "hands off" Syria and "let the Syrian people by themselves decide what they want for the future of Syria," he explained, adding that China has provided a lot of humanitarian aid to his country.

Beijing has stressed that Syria's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity must be maintained in the country's political settlement progress, while urging the international community to put aside differences and work together to fight terrorism and rebuild Syria.

"Counter-terrorism is the foundation, dialogue is the way out and reconstruction is the guarantee," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Syria's presidential political and media advisor Shaaban in November.

(CGTN's Yang Haijing also contributed to the story.)

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