Global Political Calendar: PLA's birthday, ASEAN meetings, INF expires

ASEAN holds a series of Foreign Ministers' Meetings in Bangkok with diplomats from nearly 30 countries, new Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visits Cyprus, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) celebrates its 92nd birthday, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty expires.

PLA's 92nd birthday

The PLA has come a long way since its birth during the armed uprising in the city of Nanchang on August 1, 1927, when it had only 20,000 soldiers.

Ninety-two years later, the country has two million servicemen, according to a national defense white paper titled "China's National Defense in the New Era," published on Wednesday.

The PLA has reshaped its leadership and management system, optimized its structure and reformed its military policies and institutions since 2015.

Chinese army prioritizes protecting China's overseas interests

White paper: China's defense spending is reasonable, appropriate

Today's PLA pledges to build up new types of combat forces that have the ability to conduct special operations, all-dimensional offense and defense, amphibious operations, far seas protection, and strategic projection.

The white paper also clearly stated that the PLA's role has shifted towards safeguarding China's overseas interests and international peace.

China's defense expenditure was less than a quarter of that of the United States in 2017, although, on the whole, defense spending has grown since 2012.

Defense spending has gone towards military salaries, weaponry development, military reform, training and the diversification of military tasks like UN peacekeeping operations and disaster relief efforts.

The Chinese defense ministry hasn't officially announced any celebration activities yet.

ASEAN meetings: Issues to watch

Foreign ministers from nearly 30 countries – including China, Japan, South Korea, the United States and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations – are expected to join the annual ASEAN regional forum in Bangkok next week.

ASEAN's rotating president Thailand will host the 52nd ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, 20th ASEAN Plus Three, and the 9th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting from July 30 to August 3.

The South China Sea and Korean Peninsula will be two key issues to watch.

Before the meetings, China and the ASEAN countries will hold a joint working group meeting on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea on July 27.

Back in 2018, China and ASEAN agreed on draft text of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC), with Chinese leaders proposing completing consultations on the COC within three years.

China, ASEAN to unveil new blueprint for cooperation

Earlier this summer, ASEAN countries declared the bloc was working with China in a constructive and peaceful manner to complete the consultation on the COC.

All eyes are on if U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will hold direct talks with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) foreign minister on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum on August 2, which is one of the few multilateral events attended by the DPRK's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho.

However, Yonhap reported Ri might be absent this year, quoting diplomatic sources as saying Ri also canceled his plans to visit two ASEAN countries.

Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump met at the inter-Korean border on June 30 and agreed to resume their working-level nuclear talks within a few weeks.

Kim Jong Un plays his hand and reminds Washington of DPRK's capabilities

The talks are expected to start in mid-July but Pyongyang reportedly did not respond to Washington's offer for dialogue.

Last week, Pyongyang slammed the U.S. for planning to hold joint military drills with Seoul next month, warning that it could affect the agreed talks and test-fired two new short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday.

INF to expire

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) is set to expire on August 2. When this happens, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed in 2010 will be the last major arms-control treaty remaining between the U.S. and Russia.

The U.S. announced on February 1 that it will withdraw from the INF Treaty in six months unless Moscow ends what it says are violations of the landmark 1987 arms control pact.

Putin then announced that Russia had suspended the INF Treaty and officially signed a law suspending the INF on July 3.

The INF was signed by then U.S. President Ronald Reagan and former Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, in a bid to halt the proliferation of nuclear and conventional missiles.

INF Treaty is suspended as Moscow and Washington shift blame

Why is the U.S. withdrawing from the INF Treaty?

It required the U.S. and the Soviet Union to eliminate all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.

New Start will also expire in 2021. Putin said at the G20 Osaka Summit in Japan that Russian and U.S. foreign ministers would begin talks over extending New START even though it was not clear whether they will be successful.

Day by day

Monday: Foreign ministers gather in Bangkok for the 52nd ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, 20th ASEAN Plus Three, and the 9th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting (to August 3), Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visits Cyprus

Tuesday: Democratic presidential candidates take part in the second presidential primary debates of the 2020 election (to July 31)

Wednesday: ASEAN-related series meetings continue

Thursday: The 92nd anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army

Friday: Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty expires

Saturday: ASEAN-related series meetings close

Sunday: A quiet day in politics

(With input from agencies)