Japan's recent House of Representatives election has reshaped the country's political landscape, raising growing concerns in the region over Tokyo's policy trajectory. With the ruling bloc consolidating overwhelming parliamentary dominance and right-leaning forces gaining greater influence, experts warn that Japan may be entering a phase of heightened political assertiveness – one that could carry serious implications for China-Japan relations, regional stability and the post-war international order.

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Q&A: Where will Takaichi lead Japan's foreign policy after lower house election?

Japan's ruling bloc secures lower house majority: What's next for China-Japan relations?

China-Japan relations under pressure

Despite strong reactions in China to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's previous erroneous remarks on China-related issues, Chinese experts caution against interpreting her electoral victory as a direct public endorsement of confrontational China policies.

Lu Hao, head of the Strategy Section at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that Japan's increasingly competitive and negative stance toward China is not the result of a single election or individual politician.

Japan's current China policy is rooted in a long-term elite-level strategic competition mindset, Lu pointed out, explaining that years of political discourse and media narratives have gradually shaped mainstream public opinion. As a result, skeptical and negative perceptions of China have become widespread in Japanese society.

According to Lu, Takaichi's victory in the lower house election should not be seen as voters explicitly backing her hardline China policy. Instead, the outcome reflected broader domestic factors such as her populist economic and governance proposals, as well as strategic missteps by opposition parties.

However, Lu warned that the political consequences of the election are nonetheless significant. With Takaichi's camp now commanding an absolute majority in the House of Representatives, policies related to constitutional revision, military expansion and tougher stances toward neighboring countries – including China – are likely to face fewer institutional constraints.

"In the parliamentary sense, these policies can now be advanced much more smoothly," Lu said. "This may further embolden a leadership that already favors strong, highly symbolic hardline positions."

He added that on sensitive issues such as China's Taiwan, historical disputes and visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, there has been no substantive policy correction. On the contrary, such positions risk deepening confrontation at precisely the most politically sensitive fault lines in China-Japan relations.

Lu also expressed skepticism that Takaichi would follow recent Western efforts to stabilize or recalibrate relations with China. Her right-wing ideological orientation, strong reliance on the Japan-U.S. alliance, and domestic political narrative built around emphasizing external threats make a near-term policy shift unlikely, he argued.

"Without changes on core political and security principles, improvements in broader bilateral relations are extremely difficult," Lu said.

Meng Xiaoxu, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned that Takaichi's constitutional revision agenda, combined with Japan's accelerating rightward tilt and military liberalization, could further undermine China-Japan relations.

From the perspective of historical cognition, Meng noted that Takaichi has long adhered to what he described as distorted views of history. She has repeatedly visited the Yasukuni Shrine, questioned the post-war political consensus represented by the Murayama Statement, cast doubt on the historical facts of the Nanjing Massacre, and portrayed Japan's war of aggression as a "war of self-defense." Such narratives, he argued, remove the moral constraints on Japan's military expansion.

Her constitutional agenda, Meng added, is equally alarming. By advocating revisions to Article 9 of the constitution and promoting the legal foundation for so-called counterstrike capabilities, Takaichi seeks to eliminate legal obstacles to transforming the Self-Defense Forces into a formal military. Combined with the alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party – whose political orientation is further to the right – this hardening ideological shift is likely to exert a severe negative impact on China-Japan relations.

Growing regional concern

Beyond bilateral ties, experts highlight that the election has fundamentally altered Japan's domestic balance of power, which could increase the likelihood of what Meng described as "more adventurous" policymaking.

Meng pointed out that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) alone secured 316 seats, surpassing the two-thirds threshold in the House of Representatives. Together with the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling bloc now controls 352 seats, well above the 310-seat benchmark required to initiate constitutional revision.

"This has effectively created a strong governing structure with far-reaching implications for both domestic and foreign policy," Meng added.

He noted three major shifts. First, the LDP no longer faces meaningful constraints from coalition partners, while opposition forces – particularly centrist parties – have suffered severe losses and are unable to provide effective checks in the short term.

Second, with a two-thirds majority, the ruling bloc can push through key legislation on budgets, defense and security with reduced institutional resistance, weakening traditional policy restraints.

Third, the inclusion of the Japan Innovation Party, a force positioned further to the right than the LDP's former coalition partners, signals a broader rightward shift in the governing alliance's ideological orientation.

Meng identified two areas where policy risks are particularly acute.

On security, Japan may accelerate constitutional revision efforts, including to explicitly recognize the country's Self-Defense Forces, raise defense spending and operationalize so-called counterstrike capabilities. These steps, he warned, could erode Japan's long-standing "exclusive defense-oriented policy" and heighten regional tensions.

On diplomacy, Japan may leverage its strong domestic mandate to further tighten the Japan-U.S. alliance and take a more proactive role in regional affairs, amplifying bloc-based confrontation.

How should the international community respond?

Meng emphasized that the international community must act collectively and proactively to manage the risks posed by Japan's rightward shift and military loosening.

First, he said, the post-war international order must be firmly upheld. Key documents such as the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the United Nations Charter should be reaffirmed as the legal and moral foundations opposing constitutional revision, military expansion and historical revisionism.

Second, historical truths must be defended in multilateral settings, including the United Nations and ASEAN-led platforms. Actions such as denying wartime aggression or honoring war criminals should be openly criticized to prevent the erosion of shared historical understanding, he said.

Third, international public opinion and media scrutiny should be strengthened to raise the political and reputational costs of unilateral actions, while supporting peace-oriented voices within Japan.

At the regional level, Meng called for closer coordination among neighboring countries – particularly those that suffered from Japanese wartime aggression – to align positions and responses. He also urged regional organizations like ASEAN, to promote inclusive security dialogue as a counterbalance to bloc confrontation.

Meng further stressed the importance of communication with the United States. He warned that Japan shows signs of attempting to "bind" Washington more tightly into its strategic agenda, potentially magnifying conflict risks. As Japan's ally, the U.S. should be made aware of the dangers posed by unchecked military loosening, he said.

"Only through coordinated action can the international community curb risky impulses, manage conflict, and steer the region back toward peace, stability and cooperative development," Meng concluded.